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НАК „НАФТОГАЗ УКРАЇНИ“. Річний звіт англійською (2017 рік) - 8
OUR PERFORMANCE
ANNUAL REPORT 2017
117
116
system allocated to the transit
business is almost equal to
the value of pipelines used for
existing transit routes (currently
only Druzhba oil pipeline), which
comprises about half of total
value of oil transmission system as
of 31.12.2017.
If historical transit routes were
preserved (such as Samara –
Lysychansk – Tykhoretsk and
Brody–Yuzhny in reverse mode),
ROIC of oil transit would be much
lower.
If ROIC for the whole business
group of oil transit and
transmission is calculated for
2017, it would be 6%, which is less
than the appraiser’s cost of capital
(17.4%).
Oil domestic transmission:
UAH-denominated ROIC vs
cost of capital, %
2016
2017
–6�8%
–6�3%
17�4%
17�4%
ROIC
Cost of capital
Oil transit: UAH-denominated
ROIC vs cost of capital, %
2016
2017
20�5%
19�9%
17�4%
17�4%
ROIC
Cost of capital
million t/year
90�0
80�0
70�0
60�0
50�0
40�0
30�0
20�0
10�0
0�0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Transit Domestic transportation Total
The Baltic pipeline route-1
started 12 MT/y
The Baltic pipeline route-2
started 25 MT/y
Bypassing pipeline to
Novorossiysk started
28 MT/y
78�0
66�9 68�5
65�3 64�6
65�4
64�0
48�0
54�9
44�9
40�9
29�8
17�2
16�9
15�2
64�1
65�2
63�6
56�7
46�7
50�9
38�5
25�2
17�6
16�8
16�0
36�9
19�2 17�9
15�2 11�2
12�0
7�6
20�6
22�4
11�7
8�1
9�7
2�7
1�8
1�4
11�2
11�3
15�0
23�5
15�3
11�1
9�4
7�4
2�0
1�6
2�1
41�1
47�7
50�6 50�1 53�4
53�4
56�4
27�4
32�5
33�2
32�8
20�1
14�5
15�0
13�8
52�9
53�9
48�6
33�2
31�4
39�8
29�1
17�8
15�6
15�2
13�9
2004-42
MT/y
2015-55
MT/y
The volume of crude oil transportation
Key problems:
1. Russia and Kazakhstan
redirected oil export routes
to Russian port terminals
Russia is working to remove
transit intermediaries as part
of the Kremlin’s geo-economic
strategy. This is precisely why
Ukraine has been facing dramatic
reductions in oil transit during
the past few years.
With the aim of bypassing
transit countries, Russia
completed construction of
the Baltic Pipeline System
(BTS-1 and BTS-2) with a
total transfer capacity of 80
million tons of oil per year.
As a result, in 2016 and 2017,
about 80% of Russia’s crude
oil and condensate exports
were seaborne. However,
regardless of the ultimate mode
of transport, most of Russia’s
crude oil exports must traverse
Transneft’s pipeline system (RF
oil pipeline operator), either
as a direct route to reach
bordering country or to reach
Russian ports. Despite the
growing share of oil supplies
from the Russian Federation
to the European market, the
transit flow via the Ukrainian
string of Druzhba oil pipeline is
dropping.
As a result of the low
diversification of transit flows,
the aggressive policies of
neighboring countries and the
slow response to changes in the
market situation, Ukraine has lost
more than 30 million tons of oil
transit flow per year since 2001.
2. Lack of diversification
Ukrainian transit oil flow
comprises only oil from Russian
producers. Transit volume
Russia and Kazakhstan redirected oil export routes to Russian
ports’ terminals since 2001
%
%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Share of Russia oil in EU import (left scale)
Share of Ukrainian route in Russia export (right scale)
CAGR 3�4%
CAGR –7�1%
Diversification of Hungarian import
%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
% Russian Federation oil
% other oil (left scale)
Total imported volume million barrels/year (right scale)
89%
79%
79%
60%
43�7
estimated losses of Ukrainian route 2�8 million t
45�1
43�8
43�8