содержание .. 1 2 3 4 ..
НАК „НАФТОГАЗ УКРАЇНИ“. Річний звіт англійською (2017 рік) - 3
OUR MARKET AND REFORMS
ANNUAL REPORT 2017
37
36
At the same time, 2017
demonstrated a record low
capacity of new discovered
oil reserves, with the average
capacity of about 550 million
barrels of oil equivalent per
month
19
. Most alarming is
the fact that the reserve
replacement ratio
20
(for oil and
gas) reached only 11% in 2017
compared to more than 50%
19
Rystad Energy https://www.rystadenergy.
com/newsevents/news/press-releases/
all-time-low-discovered-resources-2017/
20
The reserve replacement ratio is the ration
of the number of reserves discovered during
the year to the global hydrocarbon production
during the year.
in 2012. Such a low reserve
replacement level can have a
negative impact on the supply
side over the next decade,
which will accordingly affect
world energy prices.
Overall, a steady trend towards
rising prices on the oil market
was observed in 2017, which
is primarily due to the freezing
of oil production volumes
by OPEC countries. The
current high oil prices make
investments in oil production
more attractive, including in
Ukraine. However, since Ukraine
is a net importer of oil and
oil refining products, Ukraine
is forced to spend additional
currency resources for their
purchase. For instance, in 2017
alone, the total expenditures
of the country on oil and
petroleum product imports
increased by 33%. In case of
further growth of the world oil
prices and without building up
domestic production of oil and
petroleum products in Ukraine,
this trend will negatively affect
the balance of payments of
the country and can lead to a
reduction in GDP.
Major events that impacted the price situation on the oil market in 2017
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August September October November December
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1. For most of the first quarter of 2017, prices were stable against the background of the agreement reached by
OPEC member countries at the end of 2016 on "freezing" the level of oil production.
2. Prices began to decline in March 2017 after the publication of several consecutive reports of the US Energy
Information Administration on increases in the US commercial reserves of oil.
3. As a result of the shutdown of a number of major refineries in the United States and other parts of the world for
maintenance, another fall in prices occurred in May 2017 and buildup of commercial crude oil reserves in the
United States.
4. In June 2017, prices began to increase based on the expectations of market participants for further reduction of oil
production by OPEC member countries in order to balance the market.
5. The market response to the OPEC decision to maintain oil production at the current level was a rapid drop in
prices in July 2017.
6. Since the beginning of the third quarter of 2017, there has been evidence that proved the effectiveness of
the OPEC member states agreement on the oil output cut. In addition, a high level of loading of refineries and
demand for refined products was observed. The level of loading of European refineries grew from 89% in Q2 2017
to 92% in Q3 2017; overall the global oil increase in Q3 was 1.1%.
7. In November 2017, OPEC member states at their regular meeting decided to extend the decision to restrict oil
production until the end of 2018.
European market for oil and petroleum products
2017 can be considered a success
for European refineries. Due to
the oil refining margin, which was
higher than in 2016, the European
refineries utilization rate was
stable during 2017
21
.
European oil refining capacities
dropped by 15% between 2010
and 2017 (from 865 million t/ year
to 740 million t/year)
22
and in
2017 they comprised about 14%
of global capacity. In view of
world trends, further reduction in
production capacities is possible
in the period to 2025 due to:
– an increase in petroleum
products and construction
21
Monthly OPEC Report (2017), IEA Global Margin
Conversion Indicator
22
International Refining and Petrochemical
Conference (IRPC) in Europe in 2017 (from the
speech of Manfred Litner, member of executive
board of OMV AG)
of new oil refineries on other
continents
23
;
– an increase in the share of
imports of finished petroleum
products in Europe against the
background of reduction of
emission quotas for harmful
substances.
One of the factors that positively
impacted the operations of the
European refineries was the
decrease in production and in
excess supply on the market after
the 2017 agreement between
the OPEC member states was
reached. This factor operates
in a way that the reduction of
production was mainly due to
heavy grades of oil, which are
usually processed by refineries
with a high level of complexity
23
Global Data
and located outside of Europe.
The European oil refineries
process lightweight petroleum,
which is logistically available for
delivery (oil from Kazakhstan,
Azerbaijan, Libya and Nigeria
is not within the scope of
petroleum output cut agreed by
the OPEC member countries).
In Q3 and Q4 2017, the
petroleum products price
trend in Europe was much
slower than the global oil price
trend. For instance, the oil
price growth during August-
December 2017 amounted to
about 30% (from 49 to 64 USD/
barrel), while the petroleum
products price growth in
European countries amounted
to about 10% for gasoline and
diesel fuel, which impacted the
oil refining margin curve for
European refineries.
Gas Liquids Year average
Global conventional discoveries, billion boe
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
January
April
July
Oct
ober
January
April
July
Oct
ober
January
April
July
Oct
ober
January
April
July
Oct
ober
January
April
July
Oct
ober
January
April
July
Oct
ober
2012
2013
2015
2014
2016
2017
TOTAL VOLUME
PER YEAR
30
16
15
15
8
6�7
2�5
1�3
1�3
0�6
0�6
1�3